Austin Real Estate Market Update | September 2026

Is housing inventory rising or falling in Austin?

At first glance, the answer appears straightforward.

Months of inventory across the Austin metro currently stands at 5.75 months, compared with 6.03 months one year ago.

That suggests the Greater Austin housing market is gradually tightening.

But that single number doesn't tell the story today's buyers and sellers actually need to understand.

Of the 30 Austin-area cities tracked by Team Price Real Estate, 18 currently have less housing inventory than they did last September, while 12 have more.

And the differences between those markets are enormous.

Cedar Park: 3.02 months of inventory
Lakeway: 3.61 months
Austin Metro: 5.75 months
Wimberley: 11.40 months

The takeaway?

There is no single "Austin real estate market" right now.

If someone asks what housing inventory is doing in Austin, the better question may be:

"Which city, neighborhood, or ZIP code are we talking about?"

Austin Housing Inventory Is Down — But Location Changes Everything

Months of inventory is one of the most useful measurements for understanding the balance between housing supply and buyer demand.

Generally speaking, lower inventory means buyers have fewer properties to choose from, while higher inventory creates more competition among sellers.

Across the Austin metro, inventory has declined from 6.03 months last September to 5.75 months today.

But underneath that metro-wide figure, individual markets are moving in dramatically different directions.

Consider Wimberley.

Housing inventory there increased from 6.41 months to 11.40 months, an extraordinary 78.0% year-over-year increase.

Lakeway experienced almost the exact opposite.

Inventory declined from 5.89 months to 3.61 months, a 38.7% year-over-year decrease.

Meanwhile, Cedar Park currently sits at just 3.02 months of inventory.

Three Greater Austin communities.

Three completely different housing markets.

That's why broad Austin housing statistics should be treated as context—not necessarily as a description of what's happening in your neighborhood.

Lakeway Shows Why Falling Inventory Doesn't Automatically Mean a Stronger Seller's Market

Lakeway may be one of the most interesting examples in the Austin housing market right now.

On the surface, the numbers look extremely encouraging for sellers.

Housing inventory declined 38.7% year over year, falling from 5.89 months to just 3.61 months.

Ordinarily, a dramatic reduction in available supply might suggest that buyers are absorbing homes quickly and sellers are gaining negotiating leverage.

But that's not what the underlying data shows.

Closed sales in Lakeway also declined.

There were 28 closed sales during the most recent 30-day period compared with 33 during the same period last year.

Prices moved lower as well.

The bottom quartile median sold price came in at $589,875, down 6.7% year over year.

At the upper end, the top quartile median was $844,000, down 12.1%.

Price per square foot declined approximately 12% at both ends of the market.

So what's happening?

Lakeway's Inventory Decline Appears to Be About Sellers Leaving, Not Buyers Rushing In

This distinction is extremely important.

Inventory can decline for two very different reasons.

The first is healthy buyer absorption: homes sell, buyers remove inventory from the market, and supply falls because demand is strong.

The second is seller withdrawal: listings expire, sellers remove properties from the market, or fewer homeowners decide to list.

Lakeway's current numbers point toward the latter dynamic.

Supply has fallen substantially, but sales have fallen too.

If strong buyer demand were responsible for Lakeway's 38.7% inventory decline, we would expect that strength to show up more clearly in transaction volume and potentially pricing.

Instead, both sales and prices are lower.

For Lakeway homeowners, that's an important warning against interpreting declining inventory as automatic pricing power.

A seller who sees "3.61 months of inventory" and assumes that means buyers will compete aggressively for an overpriced home could make an expensive mistake.

Less inventory does not automatically mean more demand.

You have to understand why inventory is declining.

Cedar Park Is Telling a Very Different Story

Then there's Cedar Park.

Among the 30 markets currently tracked, Cedar Park stands out.

Its absorption rate is 31.5%.

For context, Team Price Real Estate identifies the historical average absorption rate for the overall Austin market at 31.22%.

That means Cedar Park is currently absorbing available housing inventory at approximately Austin's long-term normal pace—even while the broader metro remains well below that historical benchmark.

Cedar Park also has just:

1.7 sellers for every buyer

compared with:

2.4 sellers per buyer across the Austin metro.

It is currently the only tracked city classified as "Warm."

And unlike most Austin-area cities, Cedar Park is also showing positive year-over-year pricing.

The city's median sold price currently stands at approximately $500,000, up 1.0% from last year.

Only eight of the 30 tracked cities currently have positive year-over-year median price movement.

Cedar Park is one of them.

Why Is Cedar Park's Housing Market Performing Better?

There probably isn't one single answer.

But the combination of metrics is noteworthy.

Cedar Park currently has:

3.02 months of inventory

31.5% absorption

1.7 sellers per buyer

A "Warm" market classification

A $500,000 median sold price

1.0% year-over-year price growth

No individual statistic proves a market is strong.

Taken together, however, these numbers show a market operating considerably closer to historical equilibrium than much of Greater Austin.

That's particularly important because Austin's post-pandemic housing correction has affected different communities at very different speeds.

Some markets continue to struggle with excess supply.

Others are gradually absorbing it.

And a select few—Cedar Park currently being the clearest example—are beginning to display a healthier relationship between buyers and available inventory.

Greater Austin Buyer Demand Is Also Improving

The city-level numbers aren't the only encouraging signal.

Looking across the broader Austin residential market through September 2, Team Price reports that new listings are down 2.0% year over year while pending contracts are up 3.8%.

That combination matters.

There have been approximately 850 fewer new listings entering the market than at the same point last year.

At the same time, buyers have generated approximately 1,333 more pending contracts.

The pending-to-new-listing ratio has consequently improved from:

0.82 in 2025

to:

0.87 in 2026

That means the Austin housing market is currently converting a greater percentage of incoming housing supply into pending sales than it was a year ago.

Austin's Supply and Demand Gap Is Slowly Improving

There's another important trend hiding inside those numbers.

Earlier in 2026, new listings were running approximately 4% to 5% below 2025 levels.

By June 22, the deficit had narrowed to approximately 3.4%.

Now, entering September, the gap has compressed to only 2.0%.

Normally, a shrinking new-listing deficit might suggest that additional supply is beginning to catch up.

But something else is happening simultaneously.

The pending-sales advantage is expanding.

By mid-August, pending contracts were approximately 3.1% ahead of last year.

They are now 3.8% ahead.

So the gap in new listings is narrowing while the advantage in pending contracts is widening.

That's a potentially encouraging signal heading into the fall Austin real estate market.

It suggests buyers are absorbing available housing supply more effectively than they were a year ago—even as the normal seasonal slowdown approaches.

But Improving Metro Data Doesn't Mean Every Austin Neighborhood Is Improving

This is where homeowners need to be particularly careful.

A metro-wide statistic can be completely accurate and still be nearly useless for pricing an individual home.

Imagine three homeowners preparing to sell.

One owns a home in Cedar Park with approximately 3.02 months of inventory.

Another owns in Lakeway, where inventory has fallen sharply but prices and transaction volume have also declined.

A third owns in Wimberley, where inventory has surged to 11.40 months.

All three homeowners technically live within the broader Austin-area real estate market.

But they aren't competing in remotely similar conditions.

Their pricing strategies shouldn't be the same.

Their expectations for days on market shouldn't be the same.

Their negotiating strategies shouldn't be the same.

And their expectations regarding buyer leverage shouldn't be the same.

Austin Real Estate Has Become Hyper-Local

For years, people have described real estate as local.

Today's Greater Austin market takes that concept even further.

Austin real estate isn't simply local. It's hyper-local.

City matters.

ZIP code matters.

Neighborhood matters.

Price range matters.

Property type matters.

New construction competition matters.

And sometimes, even moving a few miles can place a property into a completely different supply-and-demand environment.

That's why statements such as "Austin has 5.75 months of inventory" should be viewed as a starting point—not an answer.

What Does This Mean If You're Selling a Home in Austin?

If you're considering selling, don't base your strategy on a headline about the overall Austin housing market.

Start with your direct competition.

How many comparable homes are currently for sale?

How many are pending?

How quickly are they going under contract?

How many have reduced their prices?

What percentage of sellers are competing for each active buyer?

How does your neighborhood's inventory compare with last year?

And perhaps most importantly:

Is inventory declining because buyers are purchasing homes—or because sellers are leaving the market?

Lakeway demonstrates why that last question matters.

A declining inventory number can look bullish while the underlying market tells a completely different story.

What Does This Mean for Austin Home Buyers?

Buyers should take the same hyper-local approach.

A buyer looking in Cedar Park currently faces a much different supply-and-demand environment than someone searching in Wimberley.

In a tighter market, desirable homes that are properly priced may leave less room for aggressive negotiation.

In a market carrying substantially more inventory, buyers may have considerably more leverage.

That leverage can potentially affect:

Purchase price

Seller concessions

Closing-cost assistance

Repair negotiations

Rate-buydown contributions

Closing timelines

Other contract terms

Understanding local inventory before making an offer can help determine not just which home to buy, but how aggressively to negotiate for it.

The Austin Housing Market Is Improving—But Unevenly

The latest data provides reasons for cautious optimism.

Metro-wide inventory has declined from 6.03 to 5.75 months.

18 of 30 cities have less inventory than a year ago.

Pending contracts are 3.8% higher year over year.

New listings are 2.0% lower.

And the pending-to-new ratio has improved from 0.82 to 0.87.

But those numbers shouldn't be interpreted as evidence that every Austin-area market has suddenly turned.

Wimberley has 11.40 months of inventory.

Lakeway's inventory has plunged, yet prices and sales have declined.

Cedar Park is absorbing inventory near Austin's long-term historical average and remains the only tracked market currently classified as Warm.

Those differences are the story.

The Austin market isn't moving in one direction. It's becoming increasingly fragmented—and understanding your specific market has rarely been more important.

What's Happening in Your Austin Neighborhood?

Whether you're considering buying, selling, or simply wondering what your home may be worth, don't rely on a metro-wide headline to make a real estate decision.

Let's look at the market that actually matters to you.

I can prepare a complimentary, hyper-local real estate analysis showing current inventory, recent sales, pending activity, price reductions, buyer absorption, and the properties directly competing within your neighborhood and price range.

If you're thinking about selling, I'll help you understand how much competition your home actually faces and where today's buyers are placing value.

If you're buying, I'll help identify where you may have greater negotiating leverage—and where the market is becoming more competitive.

The Austin market is changing, but the opportunities aren't happening everywhere at the same time.

Let's find out what's happening in your market.

Ryan McLaughlin | Austin REALTOR | Team Price Real Estate
512-677-0219 | www.ryanmclaughlinrealtor.com