Area Real Estate News & Market Trends

You’ll find our blog to be a wealth of information, covering everything from local market statistics and home values to community happenings. That’s because we care about the community and want to help you find your place in it. Please reach out if you have any questions at all. We’d love to talk with you!

Sept. 4, 2026

Austin Housing Inventory Is Falling — But Your Local Market May Tell a Very Different Story

Austin Real Estate Market Update | September 2026

Is housing inventory rising or falling in Austin?

At first glance, the answer appears straightforward.

Months of inventory across the Austin metro currently stands at 5.75 months, compared with 6.03 months one year ago.

That suggests the Greater Austin housing market is gradually tightening.

But that single number doesn't tell the story today's buyers and sellers actually need to understand.

Of the 30 Austin-area cities tracked by Team Price Real Estate, 18 currently have less housing inventory than they did last September, while 12 have more.

And the differences between those markets are enormous.

Cedar Park: 3.02 months of inventory
Lakeway: 3.61 months
Austin Metro: 5.75 months
Wimberley: 11.40 months

The takeaway?

There is no single "Austin real estate market" right now.

If someone asks what housing inventory is doing in Austin, the better question may be:

"Which city, neighborhood, or ZIP code are we talking about?"

Austin Housing Inventory Is Down — But Location Changes Everything

Months of inventory is one of the most useful measurements for understanding the balance between housing supply and buyer demand.

Generally speaking, lower inventory means buyers have fewer properties to choose from, while higher inventory creates more competition among sellers.

Across the Austin metro, inventory has declined from 6.03 months last September to 5.75 months today.

But underneath that metro-wide figure, individual markets are moving in dramatically different directions.

Consider Wimberley.

Housing inventory there increased from 6.41 months to 11.40 months, an extraordinary 78.0% year-over-year increase.

Lakeway experienced almost the exact opposite.

Inventory declined from 5.89 months to 3.61 months, a 38.7% year-over-year decrease.

Meanwhile, Cedar Park currently sits at just 3.02 months of inventory.

Three Greater Austin communities.

Three completely different housing markets.

That's why broad Austin housing statistics should be treated as context—not necessarily as a description of what's happening in your neighborhood.

Lakeway Shows Why Falling Inventory Doesn't Automatically Mean a Stronger Seller's Market

Lakeway may be one of the most interesting examples in the Austin housing market right now.

On the surface, the numbers look extremely encouraging for sellers.

Housing inventory declined 38.7% year over year, falling from 5.89 months to just 3.61 months.

Ordinarily, a dramatic reduction in available supply might suggest that buyers are absorbing homes quickly and sellers are gaining negotiating leverage.

But that's not what the underlying data shows.

Closed sales in Lakeway also declined.

There were 28 closed sales during the most recent 30-day period compared with 33 during the same period last year.

Prices moved lower as well.

The bottom quartile median sold price came in at $589,875, down 6.7% year over year.

At the upper end, the top quartile median was $844,000, down 12.1%.

Price per square foot declined approximately 12% at both ends of the market.

So what's happening?

Lakeway's Inventory Decline Appears to Be About Sellers Leaving, Not Buyers Rushing In

This distinction is extremely important.

Inventory can decline for two very different reasons.

The first is healthy buyer absorption: homes sell, buyers remove inventory from the market, and supply falls because demand is strong.

The second is seller withdrawal: listings expire, sellers remove properties from the market, or fewer homeowners decide to list.

Lakeway's current numbers point toward the latter dynamic.

Supply has fallen substantially, but sales have fallen too.

If strong buyer demand were responsible for Lakeway's 38.7% inventory decline, we would expect that strength to show up more clearly in transaction volume and potentially pricing.

Instead, both sales and prices are lower.

For Lakeway homeowners, that's an important warning against interpreting declining inventory as automatic pricing power.

A seller who sees "3.61 months of inventory" and assumes that means buyers will compete aggressively for an overpriced home could make an expensive mistake.

Less inventory does not automatically mean more demand.

You have to understand why inventory is declining.

Cedar Park Is Telling a Very Different Story

Then there's Cedar Park.

Among the 30 markets currently tracked, Cedar Park stands out.

Its absorption rate is 31.5%.

For context, Team Price Real Estate identifies the historical average absorption rate for the overall Austin market at 31.22%.

That means Cedar Park is currently absorbing available housing inventory at approximately Austin's long-term normal pace—even while the broader metro remains well below that historical benchmark.

Cedar Park also has just:

1.7 sellers for every buyer

compared with:

2.4 sellers per buyer across the Austin metro.

It is currently the only tracked city classified as "Warm."

And unlike most Austin-area cities, Cedar Park is also showing positive year-over-year pricing.

The city's median sold price currently stands at approximately $500,000, up 1.0% from last year.

Only eight of the 30 tracked cities currently have positive year-over-year median price movement.

Cedar Park is one of them.

Why Is Cedar Park's Housing Market Performing Better?

There probably isn't one single answer.

But the combination of metrics is noteworthy.

Cedar Park currently has:

3.02 months of inventory

31.5% absorption

1.7 sellers per buyer

A "Warm" market classification

A $500,000 median sold price

1.0% year-over-year price growth

No individual statistic proves a market is strong.

Taken together, however, these numbers show a market operating considerably closer to historical equilibrium than much of Greater Austin.

That's particularly important because Austin's post-pandemic housing correction has affected different communities at very different speeds.

Some markets continue to struggle with excess supply.

Others are gradually absorbing it.

And a select few—Cedar Park currently being the clearest example—are beginning to display a healthier relationship between buyers and available inventory.

Greater Austin Buyer Demand Is Also Improving

The city-level numbers aren't the only encouraging signal.

Looking across the broader Austin residential market through September 2, Team Price reports that new listings are down 2.0% year over year while pending contracts are up 3.8%.

That combination matters.

There have been approximately 850 fewer new listings entering the market than at the same point last year.

At the same time, buyers have generated approximately 1,333 more pending contracts.

The pending-to-new-listing ratio has consequently improved from:

0.82 in 2025

to:

0.87 in 2026

That means the Austin housing market is currently converting a greater percentage of incoming housing supply into pending sales than it was a year ago.

Austin's Supply and Demand Gap Is Slowly Improving

There's another important trend hiding inside those numbers.

Earlier in 2026, new listings were running approximately 4% to 5% below 2025 levels.

By June 22, the deficit had narrowed to approximately 3.4%.

Now, entering September, the gap has compressed to only 2.0%.

Normally, a shrinking new-listing deficit might suggest that additional supply is beginning to catch up.

But something else is happening simultaneously.

The pending-sales advantage is expanding.

By mid-August, pending contracts were approximately 3.1% ahead of last year.

They are now 3.8% ahead.

So the gap in new listings is narrowing while the advantage in pending contracts is widening.

That's a potentially encouraging signal heading into the fall Austin real estate market.

It suggests buyers are absorbing available housing supply more effectively than they were a year ago—even as the normal seasonal slowdown approaches.

But Improving Metro Data Doesn't Mean Every Austin Neighborhood Is Improving

This is where homeowners need to be particularly careful.

A metro-wide statistic can be completely accurate and still be nearly useless for pricing an individual home.

Imagine three homeowners preparing to sell.

One owns a home in Cedar Park with approximately 3.02 months of inventory.

Another owns in Lakeway, where inventory has fallen sharply but prices and transaction volume have also declined.

A third owns in Wimberley, where inventory has surged to 11.40 months.

All three homeowners technically live within the broader Austin-area real estate market.

But they aren't competing in remotely similar conditions.

Their pricing strategies shouldn't be the same.

Their expectations for days on market shouldn't be the same.

Their negotiating strategies shouldn't be the same.

And their expectations regarding buyer leverage shouldn't be the same.

Austin Real Estate Has Become Hyper-Local

For years, people have described real estate as local.

Today's Greater Austin market takes that concept even further.

Austin real estate isn't simply local. It's hyper-local.

City matters.

ZIP code matters.

Neighborhood matters.

Price range matters.

Property type matters.

New construction competition matters.

And sometimes, even moving a few miles can place a property into a completely different supply-and-demand environment.

That's why statements such as "Austin has 5.75 months of inventory" should be viewed as a starting point—not an answer.

What Does This Mean If You're Selling a Home in Austin?

If you're considering selling, don't base your strategy on a headline about the overall Austin housing market.

Start with your direct competition.

How many comparable homes are currently for sale?

How many are pending?

How quickly are they going under contract?

How many have reduced their prices?

What percentage of sellers are competing for each active buyer?

How does your neighborhood's inventory compare with last year?

And perhaps most importantly:

Is inventory declining because buyers are purchasing homes—or because sellers are leaving the market?

Lakeway demonstrates why that last question matters.

A declining inventory number can look bullish while the underlying market tells a completely different story.

What Does This Mean for Austin Home Buyers?

Buyers should take the same hyper-local approach.

A buyer looking in Cedar Park currently faces a much different supply-and-demand environment than someone searching in Wimberley.

In a tighter market, desirable homes that are properly priced may leave less room for aggressive negotiation.

In a market carrying substantially more inventory, buyers may have considerably more leverage.

That leverage can potentially affect:

Purchase price

Seller concessions

Closing-cost assistance

Repair negotiations

Rate-buydown contributions

Closing timelines

Other contract terms

Understanding local inventory before making an offer can help determine not just which home to buy, but how aggressively to negotiate for it.

The Austin Housing Market Is Improving—But Unevenly

The latest data provides reasons for cautious optimism.

Metro-wide inventory has declined from 6.03 to 5.75 months.

18 of 30 cities have less inventory than a year ago.

Pending contracts are 3.8% higher year over year.

New listings are 2.0% lower.

And the pending-to-new ratio has improved from 0.82 to 0.87.

But those numbers shouldn't be interpreted as evidence that every Austin-area market has suddenly turned.

Wimberley has 11.40 months of inventory.

Lakeway's inventory has plunged, yet prices and sales have declined.

Cedar Park is absorbing inventory near Austin's long-term historical average and remains the only tracked market currently classified as Warm.

Those differences are the story.

The Austin market isn't moving in one direction. It's becoming increasingly fragmented—and understanding your specific market has rarely been more important.

What's Happening in Your Austin Neighborhood?

Whether you're considering buying, selling, or simply wondering what your home may be worth, don't rely on a metro-wide headline to make a real estate decision.

Let's look at the market that actually matters to you.

I can prepare a complimentary, hyper-local real estate analysis showing current inventory, recent sales, pending activity, price reductions, buyer absorption, and the properties directly competing within your neighborhood and price range.

If you're thinking about selling, I'll help you understand how much competition your home actually faces and where today's buyers are placing value.

If you're buying, I'll help identify where you may have greater negotiating leverage—and where the market is becoming more competitive.

The Austin market is changing, but the opportunities aren't happening everywhere at the same time.

Let's find out what's happening in your market.

Ryan McLaughlin | Austin REALTOR | Team Price Real Estate
512-677-0219 | www.ryanmclaughlinrealtor.com

Posted in Market Updates

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Sept. 3, 2026

Austin Builders Are Outpacing Resale Homes — And Mortgage Rates Help Explain Why

Austin Real Estate Market Update | September 2026

The Greater Austin housing market isn't behaving like one market right now.

On one side are traditional resale homes—properties being sold by individual homeowners. On the other are new construction homes backed by builders with something most individual sellers simply don't have:

The financial resources to influence a buyer's monthly payment.

That distinction has become increasingly important as elevated mortgage rates continue to affect affordability across Central Texas.

Builders can offer mortgage rate buydowns, closing-cost assistance, price reductions, upgrades, and other incentives designed to make a new home more affordable. A traditional homeowner may be able to reduce their asking price or offer concessions, but matching the financing packages available from a large builder can be difficult.

And Austin buyers appear to be responding.

According to Team Price Real Estate's August 2026 market data, new construction represents roughly one-quarter of the homes available for sale across the Austin-area MLS—but is capturing considerably more than one-third of pending contracts.

That's not a small difference.

It's one of the most important trends currently shaping the Greater Austin real estate market.

New Construction Is Capturing More Than Its Share of Austin Buyers

Team Price's August 10, 2026 Austin market data provides a particularly clear snapshot.

At the time, there were:

17,567 total active listings

Of those:

4,476 were new construction

That means builders controlled approximately 25.5% of available housing inventory.

Now look at the homes under contract.

There were 4,065 pending contracts, with new construction accounting for 1,455 of them.

That's approximately 35.8% of pending demand.

Think about what those two numbers mean.

Builders represented about:

1 out of every 4 homes for sale

But captured more than:

1 out of every 3 pending contracts

New construction is therefore attracting a disproportionately large share of the buyers who are actually making purchasing decisions.

The Activity Index Shows Just How Large the Gap Has Become

Team Price uses an important measurement called the Activity Index to evaluate how effectively available inventory is converting into pending contracts.

The formula compares pending properties with the combined pool of active and pending listings.

The higher the percentage, the greater the level of activity relative to available inventory.

On August 10:

New Construction Activity Index: 24.53%

Resale Activity Index: 16.62%

That's a gap of nearly eight percentage points.

Earlier in the summer, the divide was even wider.

Team Price reported on July 28 that new construction had an Activity Index of 27.51%, compared with just 17.04% for resale.

At that point, new construction represented approximately 24.7% of available supply but 37.7% of pending contracts.

The message from the data is difficult to ignore:

Austin-area builders are converting their available homes into contracts substantially more effectively than traditional resale sellers.

Why Are Austin Buyers Choosing New Construction?

There are several reasons a buyer might prefer a newly built home.

There's the obvious appeal of buying something new: modern floor plans, new appliances, contemporary finishes, energy efficiency, warranties, and fewer immediate maintenance concerns.

But in today's interest-rate environment, there is another factor that can outweigh almost everything else:

The monthly payment.

Team Price has repeatedly identified builder financing incentives and mortgage rate buydowns as major drivers behind new construction's stronger performance.

Builders don't necessarily have to make their homes dramatically cheaper.

Instead, they can make them cheaper to finance.

And those are two very different things.

A Lower Mortgage Rate Can Matter More Than a Lower Purchase Price

When mortgage rates are elevated, buyers don't shop solely by asking price.

They increasingly shop by monthly payment.

A resale seller might reduce a home's price by $10,000, $20,000, or even more.

That certainly creates value.

But a builder may be able to use its preferred lender relationships and financial incentives to subsidize a mortgage rate well below prevailing market rates.

That can materially change the buyer's monthly principal-and-interest payment.

Team Price highlighted this dynamic earlier in 2026 when analyzing new construction versus resale. Builder programs at the time could advertise mortgage rates around 3.99%, compared with market financing closer to 6.25% for a comparable resale purchase.

The exact builder programs, qualifications, and available rates can change, so buyers should always verify current terms.

But the underlying competitive advantage remains important:

A builder can sometimes attack affordability through financing rather than price alone.

For a payment-conscious buyer, that's powerful.

Builders Have More Tools Available to Close the Deal

Mortgage rate buydowns aren't the only advantage.

Depending on the builder, community, home, lender, and current promotion, incentives can potentially include:

Mortgage rate buydowns
Closing-cost contributions
Price reductions
Design-center or upgrade credits
Appliance packages
Finished inventory discounts
Preferred-lender incentives
Assistance with certain buyer transaction costs

These programs vary considerably, and buyers should evaluate the entire transaction rather than assuming an advertised incentive automatically makes a new home the better deal.

But from a competitive standpoint, builders have an unusually large toolbox.

An individual Austin homeowner generally doesn't.

Austin Builders Have Also Been Cutting Prices

Builders aren't relying exclusively on financing incentives.

They're also adjusting prices.

Team Price reported in March 2026 that there were 3,789 active new-construction listings across the Austin MLS.

Of those, 56.5% had experienced a price reduction.

Only 36.1% were holding their prices unchanged.

Some builder-heavy markets showed even greater levels of price reductions, including:

Georgetown: 69.1%

Liberty Hill: 66.7%

Kyle: 66.5%

This is important because it demonstrates how aggressively builders have been competing for buyers.

They're not necessarily choosing between reducing prices or offering incentives.

Depending on the property and promotion, they may have the ability to use multiple strategies to move standing inventory.

Austin's Builder Competition Is Especially Important in the Suburbs

The new-construction effect isn't evenly distributed across Greater Austin.

Some communities have dramatically more builder inventory than others.

Team Price's March analysis showed that new construction represented:

60.6% of active inventory in Liberty Hill

55.6% in Jarrell

53.5% in Kyle

52.8% in Hutto

52.1% in Buda

In markets like these, resale homeowners aren't simply competing against another family selling a similar home down the street.

They're potentially competing against entire new-home communities.

And those communities may have multiple finished homes available, professional sales teams, preferred lenders, marketing budgets, financing incentives, closing-cost programs, and the ability to adjust pricing across multiple properties.

That creates a fundamentally different competitive environment.

The Resale Market Can Look Weaker Than the Headline Austin Numbers Suggest

This is where analyzing the Austin market becomes particularly interesting.

A headline statistic covering all homes can disguise what's happening underneath.

Team Price's August 6 data showed:

New Construction Activity Index: 26.80%

Resale Activity Index: 16.61%

But the blended Austin-area Activity Index was approximately 19.4%.

If you only looked at 19.4%, you'd miss the story.

There aren't simply "Austin homes" competing in one uniform marketplace.

New construction and resale are performing very differently.

The difference becomes even clearer in communities with large amounts of builder inventory.

Team Price reported that Jarrell had approximately 4.69 months of inventory when new construction and resale were combined.

But when looking only at resale properties:

Jarrell had approximately 9.70 months of resale inventory.

Kyle showed a similar difference:

4.31 months blended

versus

5.47 months resale

Elgin:

4.49 months blended

versus

6.67 months resale

That's an important distinction for homeowners.

If you're selling a resale home in one of these markets, the broad inventory number may make your local market appear considerably healthier than the resale competition you're actually facing.

What Does This Mean for Austin Home Sellers?

If you're selling an existing home, especially in a builder-heavy area, you need to understand that the brand-new house down the road may be one of your most important competitors.

And simply matching its asking price may not be enough.

Imagine a buyer comparing two homes priced similarly.

One is your resale property.

The other is brand new.

If the builder is also offering closing-cost assistance and subsidized financing, the buyer may be able to purchase the new home with a substantially different monthly payment.

That's the comparison resale sellers need to understand.

This doesn't mean resale homes can't compete.

They absolutely can.

But the strategy needs to recognize what builders are offering.

Resale Homes Have Advantages Too

New construction doesn't automatically win every comparison.

Resale properties can offer advantages builders often cannot duplicate.

A resale home may have:

A more established neighborhood

A larger lot

Mature trees and landscaping

A more central Austin location

Completed improvements

Blinds, appliances, landscaping, fencing, or other features already included

Established neighborhood amenities

Greater architectural character

No construction activity surrounding the property

And perhaps most importantly, many resale homes are located in neighborhoods where builders simply can't create additional land.

Location remains one of the most powerful advantages in real estate.

A builder can reproduce a floor plan.

They cannot reproduce a Central Austin lot.

Sellers Need to Compete on Value, Not Just Price

For resale sellers, the lesson isn't necessarily:

"Cut your price until you beat the builder."

That's far too simplistic.

Instead, sellers need to understand their home's total value proposition.

What does your home offer that the competing new construction doesn't?

Maybe it's location.

Maybe it's a larger backyard.

Maybe it's mature trees.

Maybe it's $50,000 in improvements.

Maybe it's proximity to Downtown Austin.

Maybe it's an established neighborhood where buyers aren't surrounded by years of additional construction.

Those advantages need to be identified, quantified where possible, and marketed aggressively.

At the same time, sellers need to understand the financing environment their buyers are facing.

Because buyers aren't simply asking:

"Which home costs less?"

Increasingly, they're asking:

"Which home can I afford each month?"

What Does This Mean for Austin Home Buyers?

For buyers, today's market creates an interesting opportunity.

Don't automatically assume new construction is more expensive.

And don't automatically assume a resale home is the better value because its asking price is lower.

Compare the entire transaction.

That includes:

Purchase price.

Mortgage rate.

Monthly payment.

Closing costs.

Property taxes.

HOA fees.

Insurance.

Builder incentives.

Potential repairs.

Included upgrades.

Location.

Commute.

Lot size.

Future construction.

Potential resale value.

A $450,000 new home and a $425,000 resale home aren't necessarily $25,000 apart economically.

Financing, taxes, incentives, repairs, improvements, and ongoing ownership costs can completely change the equation.

New Construction and Resale Are Operating Like Two Different Austin Housing Markets

Perhaps the most important takeaway from the Team Price data is this:

You cannot fully understand today's Greater Austin housing market by looking at one headline number.

In July, Team Price reported a new-construction Activity Index of 27.51% versus 17.04% for resale.

By August 10, builders represented approximately 25.5% of active inventory while capturing 35.8% of pending contracts.

Those aren't minor statistical differences.

They demonstrate that builders are winning a disproportionately large share of Austin-area buyers.

Higher mortgage rates have made monthly affordability increasingly important, and builders have responded with one of the most effective tools available:

Money.

Rate buydowns. Closing-cost assistance. Price reductions. Standing inventory discounts. Preferred-lender programs.

Those incentives are helping builders compete in ways that individual homeowners often cannot easily duplicate.

Buying or Selling in Austin? Compare the Numbers Before Making a Decision.

Whether you're considering a new construction home, buying a resale property, or thinking about selling your current home, today's market requires more than simply looking at asking prices.

You need to understand what you're actually competing against.

For buyers, I can help compare new construction and resale options based on the complete financial picture—not just the advertised purchase price.

For sellers, I can prepare a hyper-local market analysis that identifies not only your resale competition but also the new-construction inventory and builder incentives that may be competing for the same buyers.

In today's Austin real estate market, the best deal isn't always the home with the lowest price. It's the home that delivers the strongest overall value.

Let's look at the data and determine which opportunity makes the most sense for you.

Ryan McLaughlin | Austin REALTOR | Team Price Real Estate
512-677-0219 | www.ryanmclaughlinrealtor.com

Posted in Market Updates

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Sept. 1, 2026

Austin Home Sellers Have Less Competition in 2026 — Here’s Why That Matters

Austin Real Estate Market Update | September 2026

For the past several years, one of the biggest challenges facing homeowners considering selling a home in Austin has been competition.

As Austin housing inventory increased from the extreme shortages of the pandemic-era market, buyers gained more choices, homes took longer to sell, and sellers increasingly found themselves competing on price, condition, location, and incentives.

But as we move toward fall 2026, something important has changed.

If you own a home inside the City of Austin, you are now competing against significantly fewer homes than you were one year ago.

According to Team Price Real Estate's August 20, 2026 market data, active listings inside the City of Austin declined 11.8% year over year, falling from 5,420 homes to 4,782 homes.

That's 638 fewer homes competing for buyers' attention.

For Austin homeowners who have been waiting for the market to improve before selling, this may be one of the most important real estate trends to watch heading into the remainder of 2026.

Austin Housing Inventory Is Telling Two Different Stories

Looking only at the Greater Austin real estate market can hide what is actually happening inside Austin.

Across the Austin-Area MLS, there were 17,397 active listings on August 20 compared with 17,335 one year earlier—an increase of just 62 properties, or roughly 0.4%.

On the surface, that looks like virtually no change.

But underneath that regional number is a dramatic shift.

City of Austin:
5,420 active listings → 4,782
Down 638 homes, or 11.8%

Outside the City of Austin:
11,915 active listings → 12,615
Up 700 homes, or 5.9%

In other words, housing supply didn't simply disappear from Central Texas—it shifted geographically.

While suburban sellers are competing against approximately 700 more listings than last year, homeowners inside Austin are competing against 638 fewer.

That distinction matters tremendously if you're considering selling an Austin home.

Austin Sellers Now Represent a Smaller Pool of Available Homes

Another way to understand the shift is to look at Austin's share of total housing inventory.

One year ago, homes inside the City of Austin represented approximately 31.3% of all active Austin-area listings.

Today, they represent approximately 27.5%.

That means buyers searching specifically within Austin city limits are choosing from a noticeably smaller share of the region's overall housing inventory.

And fewer competing homes can create opportunity for sellers—particularly when a property is well positioned, professionally marketed, and priced appropriately for its neighborhood.

Months of Inventory Has Also Fallen Sharply in Austin

The decline isn't limited to the number of homes for sale.

Months of Inventory—one of the most important measurements of supply and demand in real estate—has also improved significantly.

Team Price reports that the broader Austin-Area MLS declined from 6.17 months of inventory to 5.88 months, a 4.7% year-over-year reduction.

Inside the City of Austin, however, the change has been considerably larger.

Austin declined from:

5.27 months → 4.46 months

That's a 15.4% year-over-year decline in housing inventory.

Months of Inventory estimates how long it would take to sell the existing supply of homes at the current pace of sales if no additional properties entered the market.

The lower that number moves, the less supply buyers have available relative to the current pace of transactions.

For Austin sellers, that's an encouraging development.

New Supply Is Also Entering the Broader Market More Slowly

There is another important trend developing across the Austin real estate market.

Team Price's August 21 market briefing reported 17,482 active listings, only 0.36% above the same point in 2025 and 664 listings below the June 2025 cycle high of 18,146.

More importantly, year-to-date new listings totaled 36,124, down 4.5%, while cumulative pending contracts reached 31,288, up 0.1%.

The difference between new supply and new demand consequently narrowed from 6,562 homes last year to 4,836 homes this year.

That's significant.

It suggests that although Austin still has considerable housing inventory, new supply isn't piling onto the market at the same rate it was previously.

For sellers, that's a much healthier direction than continually increasing competition.

Does Less Competition Mean Austin Home Prices Are Going Up?

Not necessarily—and this is where sellers need to be careful.

Less inventory doesn't automatically mean we're returning to the Austin housing market of 2021 or early 2022.

In fact, Team Price's August 20 data showed that the City of Austin median sold price was $559,500, compared with $590,000 a year earlier—a decline of approximately 5.2%.

This creates an unusual combination:

Austin sellers have fewer homes to compete against, but buyers still have meaningful negotiating leverage.

Across the broader market, 72.3% of homes were closing below asking price, and the sold-to-list ratio stood at approximately 97.22%.

That's why I don't believe the takeaway for Austin homeowners should be:

"Inventory is falling, so I can ask whatever I want for my house."

Quite the opposite.

The opportunity lies in using declining competition strategically.

Pricing Your Austin Home Correctly Matters More Than Ever

Today's Austin buyer has access to enormous amounts of information.

They can quickly compare your home against competing properties, recent sales, price reductions, days on market, neighborhood trends, and available new construction.

That means sellers shouldn't price based on what a neighbor received several years ago—or what they believe their home should be worth.

The strongest strategy is to determine where buyers are actually placing value today.

A property entering the market at the right price, in excellent condition, with strong photography and professional marketing has an opportunity to stand apart—particularly when there are fewer competing listings nearby.

Overpricing, on the other hand, can waste that advantage.

If buyers reject the initial price and the property accumulates days on market, sellers can quickly find themselves chasing the market through price reductions.

Less competition is an advantage. Proper pricing is how you capitalize on it.

Austin Isn't One Real Estate Market

One of the biggest mistakes buyers and sellers can make is treating "Austin real estate" as one giant market.

It's not.

The market for a $650,000 home in North Central Austin can behave very differently from a $1.5 million property in West Austin—or a similarly priced home in Cedar Park, Round Rock, Georgetown, Leander, or another surrounding community.

Even individual Austin ZIP codes and neighborhoods can have dramatically different levels of inventory, buyer activity, price reductions, and days on market.

That's why broad headlines aren't enough when determining whether you should sell.

Your neighborhood matters. Your price range matters. Your competition matters.

And most importantly, the number of homes competing directly against your property matters.

Should You Sell Your Austin Home in 2026?

There is no universal answer.

But if you've been waiting because you believed Austin was still being flooded with additional homes for sale, the latest data deserves your attention.

Inside Austin city limits, active inventory is down 11.8% year over year.

There are 638 fewer active listings.

Months of Inventory has declined 15.4%.

And Austin's share of the region's available housing supply has dropped from 31.3% to 27.5%.

At the same time, sellers need to recognize that buyers remain price sensitive and frequently negotiate below asking.

That creates a market where strategy matters more than speculation.

For homeowners with desirable properties who price correctly and market aggressively, having fewer competing listings could create an opportunity that didn't exist to the same degree a year ago.

Thinking About Selling? Let's Look at Your Competition First.

Before deciding whether now is the right time to sell your Austin home, I'd recommend answering a much more useful question than simply asking:

"How is the Austin housing market?"

Instead, ask:

"What does the market look like for a home like mine, in my neighborhood, at my price point?"

I can prepare a complimentary, hyper-local market analysis showing you exactly how many homes you're competing against, what's currently pending, what has recently sold, where buyers are negotiating, and how your home's potential value compares with today's market.

There is no obligation to list your home. The goal is simply to give you the information necessary to make an informed decision.

Thinking about selling your Austin home? Let's start with the data.

Ryan McLaughlin | Austin REALTOR | Team Price Real Estate
512-677-0219 | www.ryanmclaughlinrealtor.com

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Aug. 25, 2026

Has the Austin Housing Market Reached a Turning Point? What the 2026 Data Really Tells Us

Austin Housing Market Update | July 2026

After several years of declining home prices, rising inventory, and changing buyer behavior, one question is becoming increasingly important for Austin homeowners and buyers:

Has the Austin housing market finally reached a turning point?

July 2026 provided some encouraging evidence that the market may be stabilizing. Prices showed their first meaningful year-over-year improvement in some measures, sales activity improved, and inventory stopped climbing at the pace Austin experienced during the correction.

But there is an important catch.

Prices appear to be stabilizing faster than buyer demand.

That distinction matters. Austin may be approaching—or already experiencing—a price floor in portions of the market, but that doesn't mean every neighborhood, price point, or property type has turned at the same time.

In today's market, understanding what's happening at the ZIP code, neighborhood, price point, and property level is more important than simply following an Austin-wide headline.

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Austin Home Prices Are Showing Signs of Stabilization

The July 27 market data supplied by Team Price Real Estate provided one of the strongest signals yet that the prolonged Austin housing correction may be changing direction.

At that point in July, the Austin-area data showed:

Median sold price: $442,195
Median price change: +2.8% year over year
Average sold price: $607,194
Average price change: +6.5% year over year
Sold-to-list ratio: 97.43%
Active inventory: approximately 17,800 homes

The direction of the price data was especially noteworthy.

Austin's median sold price had posted negative year-over-year comparisons earlier in 2026, including declines in February, April, and May. June was approximately flat before the July 27 reading moved positive.

The average sold price turned positive even earlier, posting year-over-year gains in May, June, and July.

That doesn't prove Austin has entered another appreciation cycle, but it does suggest the steepest portion of the price correction may be behind parts of the market.

Team Price's finalized July 31 data subsequently showed a $440,000 median, up 2.3% year over year, making July the first positive year-over-year monthly median reading of 2026.

Inventory Is No Longer Rising the Way It Was

The second important change is housing supply.

Austin spent several years rebuilding inventory after the extreme shortages of 2020 through early 2022. By 2025, buyers had considerably more choices and sellers faced much more competition.

That trend began changing in 2026.

The July 27 Team Price analysis showed approximately 17,800 active listings, slightly below the comparable 2025 level.

More importantly, the City of Austin itself was tightening faster than the broader metro.

Earlier July Team Price data showed City of Austin inventory down sharply year over year, with months of inventory dropping from 5.60 to 4.38.

Official July figures released later by Unlock MLS confirmed the broader tightening trend. Across the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA, active listings fell 9.9% year over year, new listings declined 2.8%, pending sales increased 4.1%, and closed sales increased 4.4%.

That's an important shift.

Fewer homes entering the market combined with more transactions can gradually reduce the supply advantage buyers accumulated during the correction.

But Buyer Demand Hasn't Fully Recovered

This is where the story gets more complicated.

A market can experience stabilizing prices without experiencing strong demand.

Team Price's July 27 analysis reported an absorption rate of 12.77%, compared with a long-term historical average above 31%.

Because July wasn't complete when that figure was calculated, it was expected to move higher by month-end—and it did. The finalized July absorption rate reached 15.73%.

That was still only about half the historical average of 31.26%.

The same pattern appeared in the Market Flow Score, which finished July at 4.12, compared with a historical average of approximately 6.54.

In plain English:

Homes are selling, but inventory is still moving through the market considerably slower than Austin's historical norm.

More Than Half of Austin-Area Listings Have Reduced Their Price

Another important indicator is price reductions.

Approximately 55% of active Austin-area listings had experienced at least one price reduction during the period covered by the Team Price analysis.

That tells us sellers still can't simply put a home on the market at an aspirational price and expect buyers to chase it.

Today's buyers are selective.

They're comparing:

Recent comparable sales
Property condition
Location
Days on market
Price reductions
Competing inventory
Neighborhood trends

And they're often willing to wait when a property appears overpriced.

For sellers, this makes accurate pricing from Day One one of the most important factors in achieving a successful sale.

The Most Important Story: Austin Is a Split Market

Perhaps the biggest mistake we can make with today's Austin market is assuming the median tells us what is happening to every home.

It doesn't.

The July data showed a significant difference between lower-priced and higher-priced properties.

According to Team Price's July 27 analysis, over the previous 30 days:

Bottom 25% of sales

Median price declined approximately 1.2% year over year.

Top 25% of sales

Median price increased approximately 7.6% year over year.

The City of Austin showed a similar pattern, with lower-quartile prices declining while upper-quartile sales increased.

This suggests part of the improvement in Austin's overall median was caused by the mix of homes being sold, rather than universal appreciation across the market.

That's a critical distinction.

Why Median Home Prices Can Be Misleading

Imagine Austin sells 100 homes one month.

If more luxury homes sell the following month, the median and average prices can increase even if individual home values haven't changed.

That's why I prefer looking beyond a single headline statistic.

Useful indicators include:

Price per square foot
Months of inventory
Pending sales
Active inventory
Days on market
Price reductions
Sold-to-list ratio
Neighborhood-specific comparable sales

Taken together, these provide a much more accurate picture of what's happening.

The Austin Market Is Extremely Hyperlocal

The market becomes even more interesting when you look below the metro level.

Some Austin-area markets have relatively tight inventory while others have substantially more supply.

Team Price's July analysis showed markets such as Cedar Park, Manchaca, Round Rock, Hutto, Lakeway, and the City of Austin carrying significantly tighter inventory than some outer Central Texas markets.

At the ZIP-code level, conditions vary even more.

That means two homes located only several miles apart can experience completely different market conditions.

One neighborhood may have:

Limited inventory
Multiple interested buyers
Faster sales
Less negotiating flexibility

Another may have:

More competing listings
Longer days on market
Frequent price reductions
Greater negotiation opportunities

There is no longer one "Austin housing market."

There are dozens of micro-markets operating simultaneously.

Well-Priced Homes Can Still Move Quickly

Despite the slower overall absorption rate, buyers haven't disappeared.

One of the most interesting findings from Team Price's July analysis was how quickly certain fresh listings were going under contract.

Among homes that were both newly listed and placed under contract within the measured 30-day window, the median time from listing to pending was approximately seven days.

That's an important signal.

Buyers are active.

They're simply selective.

A home that combines:

Strong location
Good condition
Competitive pricing
Professional presentation

can still attract attention very quickly.

The challenge is that homes missing one or more of those ingredients may sit considerably longer.

What Does This Mean for Austin Home Sellers?

The current market presents opportunities for sellers, but strategy matters enormously.

Price for Today's Market

Don't price your home based on what your neighbor received in 2022.

Those conditions no longer exist.

Instead, evaluate:

Recent closed sales
Current competition
Pending listings
Price reductions
Neighborhood inventory
Your home's condition and location

Presentation Matters

Buyers have choices.

Professional photography, staging, repairs, landscaping, and strong digital marketing can meaningfully affect how your property competes.

Hyperlocal Data Matters

Austin-wide statistics shouldn't determine your asking price.

Your neighborhood—and sometimes your street—provides a much better benchmark.

What Does This Mean for Austin Home Buyers?

Buyers still have opportunities, but they shouldn't assume every listing offers the same negotiating leverage.

A Fresh, Well-Priced Listing

These homes can move quickly.

Waiting too long or automatically submitting a deeply discounted offer may mean losing the property.

An Older Listing With Price Reductions

That's a different negotiation.

If a home has accumulated significant days on market or undergone multiple price reductions, buyers may have more leverage on:

Purchase price
Repairs
Closing costs
Rate buydowns
Closing timeline

The correct strategy depends on the property—not a generalized market label.

What Would Confirm a True Austin Housing Recovery?

One positive month isn't enough to declare the correction over.

Several indicators would provide stronger confirmation:

1. Absorption improves.
More inventory needs to consistently move into pending and sold status.

2. Price reductions decline.
Seeing the percentage of listings requiring price cuts fall below 50% would be encouraging.

3. Pending activity strengthens.
More homes entering contract would indicate stronger underlying demand.

4. Lower-priced homes stabilize.
This may be the most important indicator. A sustainable recovery should eventually include more than the upper end of the market.

5. Improvement spreads geographically.
More Austin-area cities and ZIP codes need to participate rather than relying on a handful of stronger markets.

So, Has the Austin Housing Market Reached a Turning Point?

Possibly—but the evidence suggests Austin is in the early stages of stabilization rather than a broad-based recovery.

Prices have shown encouraging signs.

Inventory has tightened.

Sales activity has improved.

But absorption remains well below historical norms, price reductions remain widespread, and performance varies considerably by price point and location.

The finalized July numbers reinforce that nuanced interpretation. Unlock MLS reported the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA median at $435,000, up 1.0% year over year, while closed sales increased 4.4% and active listings fell 9.9%.

Those are constructive signals—but not evidence that every Austin home is appreciating again.

Final Thoughts

Austin's market looks different today than it did a year ago.

The floor underneath prices appears firmer, inventory is tightening in many areas, and more transactions are occurring.

But the market remains selective.

That's why the most useful question isn't simply:

"Is the Austin market going up or down?"

A better question is:

"What's happening with homes like mine—or homes I'm considering buying—in this specific neighborhood and price range?"

That's where today's real estate opportunities are found.

Thinking About Buying or Selling in Austin?

If you're considering buying or selling a home, I can provide a hyperlocal market analysis based on your specific ZIP code, neighborhood, price point, and property—not just broad Austin-area statistics.

Understanding what is happening within a quarter-mile of a property can often tell you far more than a citywide headline.

Ryan McLaughlin | REALTOR®
Team Price Real Estate

(p) 512.677.0219

www.ryanmclaughlinrealtor.com

Sources

Team Price Real Estate / Dan Price — Has the Austin Housing Market Reached a Turning Point?, July 27, 2026. The original article and related July market reporting are available through Team Price Real Estate's Austin market research.

Team Price Real Estate — July 31, 2026 final Austin market briefing, including month-end median price, absorption rate, Market Flow Score, inventory and price-reduction statistics.

Unlock MLS — July 2026 Central Texas Housing Report, released August 11, 2026, covering Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA and City of Austin sales, pricing, listings, pending activity and inventory.

Team Price Real Estate — July 2 and July 9 Austin Housing Market Updates for supporting inventory, pricing and City of Austin trend data.

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Aug. 13, 2026

Austin Housing Market Update: Buyer Absorption Falls to Lowest Level in a Year

If you're considering buying or selling a home in Austin, one of the most important numbers to watch right now isn't simply how many homes are for sale. It's how quickly buyers are absorbing the new inventory coming onto the market.

July 2026 delivered a notable warning sign for the Austin real estate market. According to Team Price Real Estate's market analysis, the New Listing Absorption Ratio fell to 0.61—the lowest reading in the 13-month dataset analyzed.

Put simply, buyers absorbed only about 61% of the homes entering the market during July.

That imbalance between new supply and buyer demand is creating continued inventory pressure and giving buyers more choices. At the same time, sellers are responding with price reductions and more realistic pricing strategies rather than simply allowing listings to expire.

For Austin buyers and sellers, the result is a market where pricing, property condition, neighborhood, and negotiation strategy matter considerably more than broad market headlines suggest.

What Is the New Listing Absorption Ratio?

Most Austin housing market reports focus heavily on active inventory and months of inventory. Those metrics are important, but they primarily tell us about inventory that has already accumulated.

The New Listing Absorption Ratio attempts to measure what's happening to inventory as it enters the market.

Team Price calculates the ratio by comparing:

Homes entering the market:
New Listings + Back on Market

against:

Homes being absorbed by buyers:
Active Under Contract + Pending

A ratio of 1.00 would mean buyer demand is absorbing incoming inventory at approximately the same rate that homes are entering the market.

A reading below 1.00 means supply is arriving faster than buyers are absorbing it.

That's what makes July's 0.61 reading important.

Austin Buyer Absorption Fell Sharply in July

The deterioration becomes clearer when July is compared with previous periods.

July 2026: 0.61
June 2026: 0.71
July 2025: 0.75

July therefore represented the weakest absorption reading in the 13-month dataset analyzed by Team Price.

In practical terms, approximately 39% of incoming inventory was not matched by corresponding buyer absorption during the month.

That doesn't necessarily mean those homes won't eventually sell. It means the immediate flow of new supply was substantially greater than the number of properties moving Active Under Contract or Pending.

For buyers, that's an important distinction because additional available inventory can create more choices and potentially greater negotiating leverage.

For sellers, it reinforces the importance of competing effectively from the moment a property hits the market.

4,475 Homes Entered the Market—Only 2,749 Were Absorbed

The underlying July numbers illustrate the imbalance.

According to the Team Price analysis:

3,758 new listings entered the market.
717 properties returned to the market.
That created 4,475 incoming properties.
1,623 homes moved Active Under Contract.
1,126 homes moved Pending.
Total buyer absorption reached 2,749 properties.

The difference was a 1,726-home monthly surplus.

That's significant because excess inventory doesn't disappear. Unless homes are withdrawn, expire, or eventually find buyers, that imbalance can contribute to elevated active inventory.

New Listings Slowed—but Buyer Demand Slowed Faster

At first glance, fewer new listings might sound bullish for sellers.

New listing activity declined from 5,024 homes in June to 3,758 in July, reflecting the seasonal slowdown that typically follows the spring selling season.

But buyer activity slowed even faster.

Active Under Contract activity fell from 2,214 to 1,623, while Pending sales dropped from 1,963 to 1,126.

That's the critical part of the July Austin housing story.

Supply slowed, but demand slowed more.

As a result, the market became less efficient at absorbing available inventory.

Price Reductions Continue to Give Austin Buyers Opportunities

Sellers are responding to the competition.

July recorded:

6,835 price reductions

versus only:

1,142 price increases

That's nearly six price reductions for every price increase.

For buyers, widespread price reductions can create opportunities to negotiate not only on price, but potentially on other terms depending on the individual property and seller.

However, there's an interesting year-over-year improvement hidden inside the data.

July 2025 recorded 9,133 price reductions, substantially more than July 2026.

That may suggest sellers have become more realistic about pricing properties when they initially enter the market rather than starting significantly above where buyers are willing to transact.

In today's Austin real estate market, pricing correctly from day one remains one of the most important factors for sellers.

Fewer Austin Listings Are Expiring

Another potentially encouraging sign is the decline in expired listings.

July recorded just 257 expired listings, compared with:

545 in June 2026
658 in July 2025

That's important.

Weak absorption doesn't automatically mean homes aren't selling because sellers have no options. Instead, some sellers may be responding proactively through price adjustments, improved marketing, negotiation, or other listing strategies before their properties reach expiration.

That's generally healthier than allowing overpriced properties to simply sit on the market until the listing agreement expires.

Back-on-Market Activity Remains Worth Watching

July also recorded 717 homes returning to the market, equal to approximately 19% of new-listing volume.

Back-on-market activity can occur for many reasons, including contract termination, financing issues, inspection negotiations, appraisal problems, or buyer circumstances.

The Team Price analysis notes that this percentage has remained relatively consistent over the past year.

For now, therefore, contract fallout does not appear to be the primary driver of Austin's inventory imbalance.

The bigger issue remains straightforward:

More homes are entering the market than buyers are currently absorbing.

Austin Closed Sales Slowed in July

Closed sales also weakened.

July finished with 2,009 closed sales, compared with:

3,290 in June 2026
2,675 in July 2025

Because closed transactions generally represent contracts negotiated weeks earlier, closed-sales data tends to lag current buyer behavior.

That's another reason indicators such as Pending and Active Under Contract activity can be useful when evaluating where the market may be heading next.

The weaker July closing count reinforces the broader picture of softer buyer activity.

What About Mortgage Rates?

Mortgage rates certainly affect affordability and purchasing power, but the Team Price analysis reports that rates remained relatively stable at approximately 6.51%.

That matters because July's deterioration in absorption occurred without a dramatic new increase in borrowing costs.

In other words, the July data suggests that the changing balance between available supply and active buyer demand played an important role in the month's market conditions.

Mortgage rates remain important, but they don't explain the entire Austin housing market.

Is Austin a Buyer's Market in 2026?

July's flow data clearly favored buyers.

When buyers absorb only 61% of incoming inventory, sellers face more competition for available demand. Combine that with thousands of price reductions and slowing pending activity, and buyers generally have more leverage than they would in a rapidly appreciating seller's market.

But that does not mean every Austin neighborhood or property is experiencing the same conditions.

Austin remains extremely hyper-local.

A desirable, correctly priced home in a neighborhood with limited inventory can still attract significant buyer interest. Meanwhile, another property only a few miles away may compete against numerous similar listings and require price reductions to generate an offer.

That's why buyers and sellers should look beyond metro-wide statistics and understand what's happening at the ZIP-code, neighborhood, price-point, and property level.

What Austin Buyers Should Do Right Now

Current conditions can create opportunities for prepared buyers.

Higher inventory and widespread price reductions may provide additional room to evaluate properties carefully and negotiate. Depending on the individual listing, buyers may be able to explore opportunities involving:

Purchase-price negotiations
Seller-paid closing costs
Interest-rate buydowns
Repair concessions
Longer option periods
Other favorable contract terms

But a buyer's market doesn't mean every seller will accept a deeply discounted offer.

The strongest strategy is identifying which properties have genuine negotiating potential based on days on market, previous price reductions, competing inventory, seller motivation, and recent comparable sales.

What Austin Sellers Should Do Right Now

For sellers, July's absorption data delivers a clear message:

Don't chase the market downward.

When buyers have numerous alternatives, an overpriced home can quickly lose momentum.

Today's sellers need to understand:

Competing active inventory
Recent comparable sales
Days on market
Price reductions nearby
Buyer activity within the price tier
Months of inventory
Neighborhood-level absorption

Correctly positioned homes can still sell successfully.

The challenge is making your property one of the homes buyers choose rather than one of the properties that contributes to growing inventory.

What Should We Watch Heading Into Fall 2026?

The New Listing Absorption Ratio may be one of the more useful indicators to monitor over the next several months.

If buyer absorption strengthens while seasonal new-listing activity declines, inventory pressure could begin easing.

If the ratio remains near July's 0.61 level, however, available inventory could remain elevated and buyers could retain meaningful negotiating leverage.

The next several months should therefore tell us whether July represented a seasonal low point in buyer activity or the beginning of a longer-lasting demand slowdown.

The Bottom Line

The Austin real estate market continues to adjust.

July's 0.61 New Listing Absorption Ratio indicates that buyers weren't keeping pace with incoming inventory. There were 4,475 homes entering the market versus 2,749 being absorbed, leaving a 1,726-property imbalance during the month.

At the same time, sellers appear to be adapting.

Price reductions remain widespread, but they're lower than a year ago, and expired listings have fallen significantly.

For buyers, this environment can mean more inventory, greater choice, and potentially stronger negotiating opportunities.

For sellers, it means accurate pricing and a property-specific marketing strategy are critical.

And for everyone following Austin real estate, the most important lesson may be this:

Don't judge today's market by Austin-wide averages alone.

Conditions can change dramatically from one ZIP code, neighborhood, and price range to another.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Austin currently a buyer's or seller's market?

July's New Listing Absorption Ratio favored buyers. The ratio fell to 0.61, meaning buyer activity absorbed approximately 61% of the homes entering the market during the month. Combined with widespread price reductions and weaker pending activity, this gives buyers increased negotiating leverage. Conditions can still vary significantly by neighborhood and price point.

What is the New Listing Absorption Ratio?

Team Price's New Listing Absorption Ratio compares New Listings plus Back on Market properties with homes moving Active Under Contract plus Pending. A reading of 1.00 means incoming inventory and buyer absorption are balanced. A reading below 1.00 indicates incoming supply is exceeding buyer absorption.

Why are so many Austin homes reducing their prices?

When buyers have more available properties to choose from, sellers face greater competition. July recorded 6,835 price reductions compared with 1,142 price increases, showing how frequently sellers are adjusting asking prices to compete for buyer attention.

Are mortgage rates causing Austin's housing slowdown?

Mortgage rates affect affordability, but they remained relatively stable at approximately 6.51% in the source analysis. July's weaker absorption therefore appears to reflect broader supply-and-demand dynamics rather than a sudden change in mortgage rates alone.

What should Austin buyers and sellers watch next?

Watch the relationship between new listings, pending contracts, and buyer absorption. Improving absorption combined with fewer new listings could reduce inventory pressure. Continued weak absorption could preserve buyer leverage into the fall.

Want to Know What's Happening in Your Austin Neighborhood?

Metro-wide statistics are useful, but your home's value isn't determined by the Austin average.

Today's market can vary substantially by neighborhood, ZIP code, price range, property type, and even within a quarter-mile radius.

If you're considering selling—or simply wondering “What is my Austin home worth?”—I can prepare a complimentary hyper-local market analysis showing recent sales, competing listings, price reductions, days on market, and current buyer activity around your property.

And if you're buying, I can help identify areas and individual listings where today's elevated inventory may create stronger negotiating opportunities.

Contact me for a complimentary buyer consultation, seller consultation, or hyper-local Austin market report.

Ryan McLaughlin | REALTOR®

Team Price Real Estate

📞 (512) 677-0219
🌐 www.ryanmclaughlinrealtor.com

Data-driven Austin real estate guidance built around what's happening in your market—not just the headlines.

Sources

Team Price Real Estate — “Austin Housing Market Update: Buyer Absorption Falls to Lowest Level in a Year,” published July 27, 2026. Source for the New Listing Absorption Ratio methodology and the July 2026 listing, contract, price-reduction, expiration, closed-sale, and mortgage-rate figures discussed above.

Austin-Area MLS market data as analyzed by Team Price Real Estate. Source dataset underlying the Austin-area listing and transaction statistics cited in the original market analysis.

Market statistics are time-sensitive and should be independently verified before making a real estate or financial decision.

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July 28, 2026

The Most Affordable Cities to Buy a Home Near Austin in 2026 (Hint: It's Not Where Most People Think)

Published: July 28, 2026
By: Ryan McLaughlin, REALTOR® | Team Price Real Estate

Most people assume the farther you move from Austin, the more affordable homes become.

While there's some truth to that, the latest housing affordability data reveals a much more nuanced picture.

Several fast-growing suburbs are offering exceptional affordability, while some Hill Country communities and even the City of Austin remain significantly more expensive than many buyers realize.

If you're planning to buy a home in Central Texas, understanding where your income goes the furthest could save you hundreds of thousands of dollars over the life of your mortgage.

Austin Isn't One Housing Market—It's Thirty

One of the biggest misconceptions about the Austin housing market is treating it as one market.

In reality, buyers are choosing between 30 different cities, each with its own pricing, affordability, inventory, and lifestyle.

Recent affordability rankings analyzed:

Median household income
Median active list price
Estimated monthly mortgage payment (PITI)
Mortgage payment as a percentage of household income

The results reveal dramatic differences across Central Texas.

What Makes a City Affordable?

Housing affordability is often measured by the percentage of a household's gross income required to cover monthly housing costs.

For this study:

Affordable

Less than 35% of household income

Moderately Affordable

35%–50% of household income

Unaffordable

More than 50% of household income

Among the 30 cities analyzed:

✅ 12 cities were classified as Affordable
⚖️ 11 cities were Moderately Affordable
❌ 7 cities were Unaffordable

The Five Most Affordable Cities Near Austin

The rankings may surprise many homebuyers.

1. Jarrell

Jarrell ranks as the most affordable city in the Austin metro.

Median Household Income: $114,000
Median Home Price: $279,900
Monthly Housing Cost: 22.8% of Income

Jarrell continues attracting buyers looking for newer homes and lower purchase prices while remaining within commuting distance of major employment centers.

2. Hutto

Hutto continues to be one of Central Texas' strongest value markets.

Housing Cost: 24.7% of Income

With continued economic growth, new construction, and expanding amenities, Hutto remains popular with first-time buyers and growing families.

3. Manchaca

Located just south of Austin, Manchaca offers buyers a rare combination of convenience and affordability.

Housing Cost: 25.8% of Income

Its location provides easy access to Downtown Austin while maintaining significantly better affordability than many nearby neighborhoods.

4. Buda

Buda continues to attract buyers seeking more home for their money.

Housing Cost: 27.3% of Income

Strong schools, growing retail options, and proximity to Austin have made Buda one of Central Texas' fastest-growing communities.

5. Elgin

Elgin rounds out the top five.

Housing Cost: 29.6% of Income

With affordable housing and continued development, Elgin remains attractive to both first-time buyers and investors.

What About the City of Austin?

Many buyers assume Austin's recent price corrections have made the city affordable again.

The data suggests otherwise.

Current City of Austin metrics:

Median Household Income: $102,000
Median Active List Price: $539,000
Price-to-Income Ratio: 5.28
Mortgage Payment: 46.7% of Median Income

That places Austin 22nd out of 30 cities, landing in the Moderately Affordable category.

While home prices have declined from their 2022 peak, affordability is determined by the relationship between income and housing costs, not simply by how much prices have fallen.

For many buyers, Austin remains financially challenging despite lower home prices.

The Least Affordable Cities in Central Texas

At the opposite end of the rankings are communities where home prices have significantly outpaced local incomes.

These include:

Marble Falls
Driftwood
Wimberley
Dale
Dripping Springs

Unlike Austin, these markets aren't expensive because of rapid employment growth.

Instead, they're driven by:

Luxury homes
Acreage properties
Lake homes
Second-home buyers
Lifestyle purchases
Out-of-market buyers

For example:

Marble Falls

Median Household Income: $62,000
Median List Price: $535,000
Mortgage Payment: 74.2% of Household Income

That's one of the highest affordability burdens anywhere in the Austin metro.

Why Affordability Varies So Much

Several factors influence affordability across Central Texas:

Local incomes

Higher-paying employment centers improve affordability.

Home prices

Some communities have experienced much faster appreciation than others.

Housing supply

Cities with significant new construction often maintain lower prices.

Lifestyle demand

Hill Country communities frequently attract second-home buyers whose purchasing power exceeds local wage levels.

Affordability Isn't the Only Metric That Matters

While affordability is critical, it shouldn't be the only factor guiding your home search.

Buyers should also consider:

Commute times
School districts
Future appreciation
Property taxes
Inventory levels
Employment growth
Neighborhood amenities
Long-term resale potential

The "cheapest" home isn't always the best long-term investment.

What This Means for Homebuyers

If you've been discouraged by Austin home prices, don't assume homeownership is out of reach.

Many nearby communities continue offering:

Lower purchase prices
Strong appreciation potential
Newer homes
Growing local economies
Better affordability

Sometimes moving just 20–30 minutes outside the city can dramatically improve your purchasing power.

Final Thoughts

Today's affordability rankings reinforce one important lesson:

The Austin housing market isn't one market—it's thirty different markets.

Whether you're buying your first home, relocating, or investing, choosing the right city can have a much bigger impact on your monthly budget than trying to perfectly time the market.

Working with neighborhood-level data—not metro-wide averages—is the best way to identify opportunities that fit both your lifestyle and your financial goals.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Austin still affordable in 2026?

The answer depends on location. The City of Austin remains moderately affordable, while several nearby communities—including Jarrell, Hutto, Manchaca, Buda, and Elgin—offer significantly better affordability.

What is considered an affordable mortgage payment?

Most financial experts recommend keeping housing costs below 35% of gross household income.

Which Austin suburb is the most affordable?

Current data ranks Jarrell as the most affordable city in the Austin metro based on the relationship between income, home prices, and estimated mortgage payments.

Why are Hill Country towns more expensive?

Communities like Marble Falls, Driftwood, and Wimberley attract second-home buyers, retirees, and luxury purchasers whose buying power pushes prices well above what local incomes alone would support.

Should affordability be the only factor when buying a home?

No. Buyers should also evaluate schools, commute times, appreciation potential, inventory levels, taxes, and long-term financial goals.

Ready to Find the Right Home at the Right Price?

Every buyer's budget—and every city—is different. If you're wondering which Central Texas communities offer the best combination of affordability, lifestyle, and long-term value, I'd be happy to help.

I provide complimentary:

🏡 Personalized home search consultations
📍 City and neighborhood comparisons
📊 Hyper-local market reports
💰 Affordability and monthly payment analysis
📈 Long-term market trend insights
🤝 Buyer representation throughout the home-buying process

Let's find the community that's the right fit for your goals—not just your budget.

Ryan McLaughlin | REALTOR®

Team Price Real Estate

📞 (512) 677-0219
🌐 www.ryanmclaughlinrealtor.com
📧 ryan@ryanmclaughlinrealtor.com

Helping buyers, sellers, and investors make smarter real estate decisions through data-driven, hyper-local market expertise.

Keywords

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Sources

Team Price Real Estate. Housing Affordability Rankings Across the Austin Metro, July 2026.
AustinMetrics by Team Price Real Estate. City-level affordability analysis using median household income, median active list price, estimated PITI payments, and price-to-income ratios (July 2026).
Unlock MLS (Austin Board of REALTORS®). Active listing and pricing data incorporated into Team Price Real Estate's affordability rankings.
Housing affordability benchmarks based on monthly mortgage payment (principal, interest, taxes, and insurance) as a percentage of gross household income, a commonly used personal finance and housing affordability standard.

Posted in Market Updates

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July 27, 2026

City of Austin Inventory Has Entered Seller's Market Territory: What It Means for Buyers and Sellers in 2026

For the past two years, most headlines have painted the Austin housing market with a broad brush: higher inventory, softer prices, and increased negotiating power for buyers.

While that's generally true across the greater Austin metro, it no longer tells the full story.

The City of Austin itself has quietly crossed into seller's market territory, creating two very different real estate markets depending on where you're looking.

If you're planning to buy or sell a home in Central Texas, understanding this distinction could significantly impact your strategy—and potentially save (or earn) you thousands of dollars.

Austin Is No Longer One Housing Market

When people talk about "the Austin market," they're often referring to the entire metropolitan area.

That includes communities like:

Round Rock
Cedar Park
Leander
Georgetown
Kyle
Buda
Pflugerville
Bastrop
Hutto
Lakeway

However, the City of Austin is behaving very differently than many of its surrounding suburbs.

While the metro remains relatively balanced, demand inside Austin's city limits has accelerated enough to push inventory below the traditional threshold of a seller's market.

What Is a Seller's Market?

One of the most important indicators in real estate is Months of Inventory (MOI).

Months of inventory estimates how long it would take to sell every active listing if no additional homes came on the market.

Generally accepted guidelines include:

Less than 5 Months: Seller's Market
5–7 Months: Balanced Market
More than 7 Months: Buyer's Market

Today, these numbers tell two very different stories.

Austin Metro

6.00 Months of Inventory
Balanced market with a slight advantage for buyers

City of Austin

4.44 Months of Inventory
Official Seller's Market

That's one of the biggest market shifts we've seen inside Austin since 2022.

Why Inventory Is Falling Inside Austin

Inventory isn't shrinking because fewer homeowners want to sell.

It's shrinking because homes are being absorbed faster than they're being replaced.

Compared to one year ago:

City of Austin

Active listings down 15.2%
Home sales up 16.9%
Inventory tightening rapidly

Meanwhile, across the metro:

Active listings declined only 1.5%
Sales increased just 0.8%

This tells us demand remains much stronger inside Austin than many surrounding communities.

Buyers Are Competing More Inside the City

Another key measurement is the Absorption Rate, which shows how quickly available homes are selling.

Current data shows:

City of Austin

21.7% Absorption Rate
Up 37.8% year over year

Austin Metro

17.5% Absorption Rate
Up 2.4% year over year

Simply put...

Homes located inside Austin city limits are moving much faster than the metro average.

That's excellent news for sellers.

It also means buyers should expect greater competition than regional headlines might suggest.

Demand Is Quietly Building

Another important indicator is the Demand Momentum Index (DMI).

The DMI compares demand growth against inventory growth.

Current readings:

City of Austin: 17.56
Austin Metro: 1.54

Both indicate improving demand, but Austin proper is approaching territory typically associated with stronger seller leverage.

This suggests the city's housing market may continue tightening if inventory doesn't increase.

What About New Construction?

Not every segment of the market is strengthening equally.

Builders continue facing slower conditions.

July data shows:

New construction inventory relatively unchanged
New construction sales down 35.8%
New construction listings down 11.8%

Rather than signaling a market downturn, these figures suggest buyers are becoming more selective about newly built homes while resale demand inside Austin continues improving.

For buyers considering both resale and new construction, this creates unique opportunities.

Homes Are Selling Faster Again

Even with inventory remaining balanced across the metro, homes continue selling more quickly than last year.

Current Austin MLS averages:

Median Days on Market: 38 days
Average Days on Market: 63 days

The takeaway?

Well-priced homes continue attracting buyers despite higher inventory levels.

Pricing strategy matters more than ever.

What This Means for Buyers

If you're shopping inside the City of Austin, waiting too long could mean:

Increased competition
Fewer available homes
Less negotiating leverage

Meanwhile, buyers looking in surrounding suburbs may still enjoy:

More inventory
Greater price flexibility
Better negotiating opportunities

Understanding where these market boundaries begin and end can dramatically improve your buying strategy.

What This Means for Sellers

Many homeowners still believe Austin is firmly a buyer's market.

That's not entirely accurate.

If your home is located within Austin city limits, you may benefit from:

Lower inventory
Higher absorption rates
Faster sales
Stronger buyer demand

The key is pricing your home correctly from day one.

Overpricing can still cause a listing to linger, even in improving conditions.

Final Thoughts

The Austin housing market has become increasingly hyper-local.

Citywide headlines no longer tell the complete story.

While the greater Austin metro remains balanced, the City of Austin has quietly entered seller's market territory, fueled by declining inventory, rising sales, and strengthening buyer demand.

Whether you're buying, selling, or investing, understanding what's happening at the neighborhood—and even ZIP code—level has never been more important.

The best real estate decisions aren't made using metro averages. They're made using local market data.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Austin a buyer's market or seller's market?

The answer depends on location. The broader Austin metro remains balanced with approximately 6.00 months of inventory, while the City of Austin sits at 4.44 months, officially placing it in seller's market territory.

What does months of inventory mean?

Months of inventory estimates how long it would take for all active listings to sell at the current pace of sales. It's one of the most important indicators used to determine whether buyers or sellers have more negotiating power.

Why is inventory falling in Austin?

Inventory has declined because buyer demand has increased while new listings haven't kept pace with home sales, particularly within Austin city limits.

Are homes selling faster in Austin?

Yes. The median days on market has improved to 38 days, indicating that well-priced homes continue attracting buyers relatively quickly.

Is new construction slowing?

New construction sales have declined year over year, but resale demand—especially within the City of Austin—has remained considerably stronger.

Thinking About Buying or Selling in Austin?

Every neighborhood tells a different story, and today's market requires hyper-local expertise.

Whether you're considering buying your first home, selling your current property, or simply curious about your home's value, I can provide personalized market insights based on your neighborhood—not just citywide averages.

I offer complimentary:

📊 Hyper-local market reports
🏡 Home value analyses
📍 Neighborhood inventory trends
📈 Pricing strategy consultations
🤝 Buyer and seller consultations

Let's make your next move with confidence.

Ryan McLaughlin | REALTOR®

Team Price Real Estate

📞 (512) 677-0219
🌐 www.ryanmclaughlinrealtor.com
📧 ryan@ryanmclaughlinrealtor.com

Helping Austin buyers, sellers, and investors make smarter real estate decisions through data-driven, hyper-local market expertise.

Posted in Market Updates

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July 24, 2026

Is Austin Real Estate Still a Good Investment in 2026? The ZIP Codes Smart Investors Are Watching

Published: July 24, 2026
By: Ryan McLaughlin, REALTOR® | Team Price Real Estate

Austin has long been one of the nation's most sought-after real estate markets, but after interest rate increases, shifting home prices, and changing buyer demand, many investors are asking the same question:

Is Austin real estate still a good investment in 2026?

The short answer is yes—but success depends on where you invest.

Today's Austin market rewards investors who understand neighborhood-level data rather than relying on metro-wide averages. While the days of buying virtually anywhere and expecting immediate cash flow are largely behind us, there are still outstanding opportunities for investors who know where to look.

Austin Real Estate Is No Longer a One-Size-Fits-All Investment

Austin's housing market has evolved into dozens of smaller markets.

Some neighborhoods continue experiencing strong demand, while others are taking longer to absorb inventory. Likewise, rental performance varies dramatically depending on the ZIP code.

According to Team Price Real Estate's July 2026 investment analysis, approximately 75 Austin-area ZIP codes were evaluated using:

Trailing six months of sold homes
Trailing six months of leased homes
Current median home prices
Median rental rates
The traditional 1% Rule
Current financing assumptions (7.0% interest rate, 30-year fixed mortgage, 25% down payment)

Rather than asking whether Austin is a good investment, investors should be asking:

"Which Austin ZIP codes provide the best opportunity today?"

Understanding the 1% Rule

One of the most commonly used investment screening tools is the 1% Rule.

The rule suggests that a rental property should generate monthly rent equal to approximately 1% of its purchase price to be considered a strong cash-flow investment.

For example:

Purchase Price: $300,000
Monthly Rent: $3,000

This property would satisfy the traditional 1% Rule.

How Does Austin Compare?

Today's numbers tell a different story.

Across the Austin metro:

Average 1% Rule score: 0.45%
No ZIP code currently reaches the full 1% threshold
Positive monthly cash flow is difficult under today's financing costs

That doesn't necessarily make Austin a poor investment.

Instead, it means today's investors are placing greater emphasis on:

Long-term appreciation
Lower acquisition costs
Equity growth
Rent coverage relative to mortgage payments

Austin ZIP Codes Showing the Strongest Investment Potential

Several Austin-area communities continue to outperform the rest of the metro when comparing rents to purchase prices.

Among the strongest-performing ZIP codes are:

ZIP Code	Area
78725	Southeast Austin
78617	Del Valle
78640	Kyle
78621	Elgin
78610	Buda
78634	Hutto
76574	Taylor
76537	Jarrell
78724	East Austin
78741	Riverside / East Riverside

These communities generally share several important characteristics:

Lower median home prices
Strong rental demand
Better rent-to-price ratios
Growing populations
Ongoing infrastructure investment
Continued new construction

Most homes within these ZIP codes fall between approximately $260,000 and $350,000, making them considerably more affordable than Austin's luxury markets.

One ZIP Code Actually Covers Its Mortgage

Perhaps the most surprising finding from the report is ZIP code 78725.

Using the assumptions above:

Median home price: approximately $283,318
Median monthly rent: $1,822

The estimated monthly rent slightly exceeds the projected principal, interest, and property tax payment by roughly $80 per month, making it the closest ZIP code in the Austin area to meeting today's cash-flow expectations.

While this doesn't account for expenses such as insurance, maintenance, HOA dues, or vacancies, it demonstrates why investor activity continues to concentrate in Austin's more affordable submarkets.

The Luxury Market Tells a Different Story

Austin's premier neighborhoods remain highly desirable—but they're attracting a different type of investor.

Among the lowest-performing ZIP codes under the 1% Rule are:

78746 (Westlake Hills / Rollingwood)
78703 (Tarrytown)
78730 (Lake Austin)
78731 (Northwest Hills)

These neighborhoods feature median home prices well above $1 million, while rental income has not increased proportionately.

As a result, monthly rental income often falls thousands of dollars short of estimated ownership costs.

That doesn't mean these neighborhoods are poor investments.

Rather, buyers here are typically investing for:

Long-term appreciation
Scarcity of land
Luxury demand
Lifestyle benefits
Wealth preservation

These markets have historically appreciated differently than Austin's entry-level neighborhoods.

Inventory Levels Matter Too

One overlooked aspect of today's investment market is inventory.

Several of Austin's strongest-performing investment ZIP codes also maintain less than five months of inventory, indicating continued competition among buyers.

When favorable rent-to-price ratios combine with limited inventory, opportunities can disappear quickly.

Prepared investors often have an advantage.

Financing Costs Continue to Shape Investment Decisions

Mortgage rates remain one of the biggest factors influencing investment returns.

This analysis assumes:

7.00% fixed interest rate
30-year mortgage
25% down payment

At today's borrowing costs, even solid rental properties can struggle to generate immediate positive cash flow.

Should mortgage rates decline in the future, many Austin ZIP codes could become substantially more attractive from a cash-flow perspective.

What This Means for Austin Investors

Today's Austin market rewards research—not speculation.

Rather than purchasing anywhere in the metro, successful investors are focusing on neighborhoods where:

Purchase prices remain relatively affordable
Rental demand is healthy
Inventory remains constrained
Population growth continues
Long-term appreciation potential remains strong

Austin remains one of America's fastest-growing metropolitan areas, but today's opportunities require a more disciplined, data-driven approach than they did several years ago.

Final Thoughts

Austin is still one of the country's most dynamic real estate markets—but it's no longer a market where every neighborhood performs the same.

Some ZIP codes continue to provide compelling investment opportunities through stronger rent coverage and lower entry prices, while others remain better suited for investors prioritizing long-term appreciation over immediate cash flow.

Whether you're purchasing your first investment property or expanding an existing portfolio, understanding hyper-local market conditions is more important than ever.

The best investment opportunities aren't found by looking at Austin as a whole—they're found one ZIP code at a time.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Austin real estate still a good investment in 2026?

Yes, but investment performance varies significantly by ZIP code. Today's market favors investors who focus on neighborhood-specific data rather than citywide averages.

What is the 1% Rule?

The 1% Rule is a quick screening tool that compares monthly rent to a property's purchase price. Traditionally, investors seek properties where monthly rent equals approximately 1% of the purchase price.

Which Austin ZIP codes currently offer the strongest investment potential?

Based on current rent-to-price ratios, areas including 78725, Del Valle (78617), Kyle (78640), Buda (78610), Hutto (78634), Taylor (76574), Jarrell (76537), Elgin (78621), 78724, and 78741 currently offer some of the strongest relative investment metrics.

Why don't luxury neighborhoods perform as well for rental cash flow?

Luxury home prices have appreciated much faster than rental rates, making monthly cash flow more difficult to achieve. These markets are generally purchased for appreciation rather than rental income.

Will lower interest rates improve investment opportunities?

Potentially. Lower mortgage rates reduce financing costs, which can improve monthly cash flow and increase the number of properties that meet investment benchmarks.

Ready to Explore Austin Investment Opportunities?

Whether you're purchasing your first rental property, completing a 1031 exchange, or expanding your real estate portfolio, I'd be happy to help you identify the neighborhoods that best match your investment goals.

I can provide:

📍 Hyper-local ZIP code investment reports
📈 Rent vs. purchase price analysis
🏘️ Neighborhood appreciation trends
💰 Cash-flow estimates
📊 Inventory and market forecasts
🏡 On- and off-market investment opportunities

Let's build your Austin investment strategy together.

Ryan McLaughlin | REALTOR®

Team Price Real Estate

📞 (512) 677-0219

🌐 www.ryanmclaughlinrealtor.com

📧 ryan@ryanmclaughlinrealtor.com

Posted in Market Updates

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July 13, 2026

Which Austin ZIP Codes Are Seller-Friendly Right Now? Why Hyperlocal Inventory Matters More Than the Metro Average

Introduction

If you've heard that the Austin housing market is "balanced," you're only hearing part of the story.

While the Austin-Area MLS currently reports approximately 6.0 months of inventory, suggesting a balanced market overall, the reality at the neighborhood level is dramatically different.

Many of Austin's most desirable ZIP codes are experiencing much tighter inventory, creating conditions that favor sellers. At the same time, other parts of Central Texas continue offering buyers significantly more negotiating power.

The takeaway?

Real estate has become increasingly hyperlocal. Your negotiating strategy should be based on your neighborhood—not a regional headline.

SEO Keywords: Austin ZIP code housing market, Austin seller's market, Austin months of inventory, Austin housing market 2026, Austin real estate trends, Austin homes for sale, Austin neighborhoods, Austin Realtor.

📊 What Is Months of Inventory?

Months of inventory measures how long it would take to sell every home currently listed if no additional homes came onto the market.

It's one of the most widely used indicators of market conditions.

Generally speaking:

Seller Acceleration

Less than 4 Months

Strong seller position
Limited inventory
Faster sales
Competitive pricing

Seller Edge

4.0–4.9 Months

Moderate seller advantage
Healthy buyer demand
Stable pricing

Balanced Market

5.0–6.9 Months

More equal negotiating opportunities
Stable inventory
Balanced pricing

Buyer Advantage

7.0–8.9 Months

Increased inventory
More buyer choices
Greater negotiating flexibility

Buyer Control

9+ Months

Higher inventory
Longer market times
Greater buyer leverage

🏡 Austin's Metro Average Doesn't Tell the Whole Story

The Austin-area inventory currently sits around 6.0 months, suggesting a balanced market.

However...

When we examine the market by ZIP code:

27 of 75 ZIP codes have less than 4 months of inventory.
Another 17 ZIP codes fall between 4.0 and 4.9 months.

That means:

Nearly 60% of the ZIP codes tracked currently favor sellers.

This highlights why relying solely on metro-wide statistics can be misleading.

📍 Austin ZIP Codes With the Tightest Inventory

Several neighborhoods continue experiencing exceptionally limited inventory.

Among the tightest:

78739
78749
78756
78737
78731
78750
78759
78726
78757
78735

These areas generally share several characteristics:

Established neighborhoods
Strong schools
Limited opportunities for new construction
High homeowner retention
Consistent buyer demand

In many of these communities, buyers should expect fewer available homes and faster decision-making.

🌆 Seller-Friendly Cities Around Austin

Inventory remains especially tight in several suburban markets.

Leading the region:

Cedar Park
Manchaca
Round Rock
Hutto

Other cities with relatively tight inventory include:

Georgetown
Leander
Pflugerville
Del Valle
Dripping Springs
Buda
City of Austin

These markets continue attracting buyers because of employment access, schools, and lifestyle amenities.

🏘️ Not Every Market Is Tight

On the other end of the spectrum, several communities continue offering buyers greater negotiating flexibility.

Markets with higher inventory include:

Smithville
Wimberley
Spicewood
Burnet
Dale
Marble Falls

Within Austin itself:

Downtown (78701)
University area (78705)
Parts of East Austin (78721)

carry substantially more inventory than many suburban neighborhoods.

Product type also matters.

Downtown condominiums, for example, often experience different market conditions than single-family homes in Southwest Austin.

📈 Why Hyperlocal Market Knowledge Matters

Two homeowners living just a few miles apart can experience entirely different selling conditions.

For example:

A seller in 78739 may receive strong interest shortly after listing because inventory remains extremely limited.

Meanwhile, a condo owner in 78701 could face significantly more competition due to higher inventory levels.

Both properties exist within Austin.

Both are influenced by the same economy.

Yet their pricing strategy, marketing plan, and expected days on market can differ dramatically.

That's why neighborhood-level data is far more valuable than relying solely on citywide averages.

💰 Advice for Sellers

If your home is located in a lower-inventory ZIP code:

Price strategically from the start.
Don't assume limited inventory means unlimited pricing power.
Professional marketing remains essential.
Well-prepared homes continue attracting the strongest offers.

Scarcity creates opportunity—but accurate pricing still wins.

🏠 Advice for Buyers

If you're shopping in one of Austin's tighter markets:

Be fully pre-approved before viewing homes.
Understand neighborhood-specific pricing trends.
Move decisively when the right property becomes available.

If flexibility exists in your search area, nearby communities with more inventory may provide:

Greater negotiating opportunities
Larger selection
Better affordability
Additional seller concessions

Sometimes moving just a few miles can dramatically change your buying experience.

📊 Key Takeaways

Sellers

Many Austin ZIP codes currently have limited inventory.
Neighborhood-specific pricing strategies are critical.
Scarcity supports demand, but realistic pricing remains essential.

Buyers

Inventory varies significantly by ZIP code.
Competitive neighborhoods require preparation.
More flexible markets still exist throughout Central Texas.

Overall Market

Austin is no longer one housing market.

It is a collection of dozens of neighborhood-level markets, each with its own supply, demand, and pricing dynamics.

Final Thoughts

The latest inventory data reinforces one of the most important lessons in today's Austin housing market:

Local market conditions matter more than regional averages.

While the metro-wide inventory suggests balance, many neighborhoods continue experiencing strong demand and limited supply. Others remain favorable for buyers.

Whether you're buying or selling, understanding your specific ZIP code—and even your street—is one of the best ways to make informed real estate decisions.

📞 Thinking About Buying or Selling?

Every neighborhood has its own story. If you'd like to know how inventory, pricing, and buyer demand are affecting your area, I'd be happy to provide a complimentary hyperlocal market analysis tailored to your home or your next purchase.

Ryan McLaughlin | REALTOR®
Team Price Real Estate

📞 (p) 512.677.0219

🌐 www.ryanmclaughlinrealtor.com

Sources

Dan Price, "Which Austin ZIP Codes Are Seller's Markets Right Now? 27 of 75 Sit Below 4 Months of Inventory as of July 2, 2026." Team Price Real Estate, Published July 2, 2026.
Unlock MLS Housing Statistics.
Austin Board of REALTORS® (ABOR) Housing Market Reports.
Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University.
National Association of REALTORS® – Housing Inventory and Market Trends.

Posted in Market Updates

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July 8, 2026

Austin Home Sellers Are Cutting Prices Far Less Than They Were Six Months Ago: What It Means for Buyers and Sellers in 2026

Introduction

If you've been following the Austin housing market over the past year, you've likely noticed a shift in the conversation.

Late 2025 was characterized by frequent price reductions, cautious buyers, and sellers adjusting expectations after the unprecedented market of 2021 and early 2022.

Fast forward to today, and the data tells a different story.

One of the clearest indicators of seller confidence—the gap between a home's original list price and its final sale price—has improved dramatically. Sellers are making fewer price reductions before securing a buyer, while well-priced homes continue to sell much closer to their asking price.

Although buyers still have opportunities to negotiate, the window for deep discounts has narrowed considerably.

SEO Keywords: Austin housing market 2026, Austin home sellers, Austin real estate market, Austin home prices, selling a home in Austin, Austin market update, Austin sold-to-list ratio, Austin real estate trends.

📊 The Austin Market Is Showing Signs of Stabilization

One of the most revealing statistics isn't median home price—it's how much sellers are reducing their asking price before accepting an offer.

In December 2025, the average Austin-area home sold for just 90.43% of its original list price, meaning sellers gave up nearly 9.6% between their initial asking price and the final closing.

By June 2026, that number improved significantly.

Today's average home is selling for:

97.56% of its final list price
93.98% of its original list price

That means the average seller is making far fewer price reductions before finding a buyer.

📉 Sellers Are Pricing More Accurately

One of the biggest lessons from the 2026 market is simple:

Pricing correctly from the beginning matters more than ever.

The gap between original list price and final sale price has narrowed from:

6.0% in December 2025
to 3.6% in June 2026

That's nearly a 50% reduction in the amount sellers are discounting before receiving an accepted offer.

Rather than chasing the market downward with multiple price reductions, many sellers are entering the market with more realistic pricing strategies—and buyers are responding.

🏡 What the Sold-to-List Ratio Really Means

Many consumers hear terms like "sold-to-list ratio" but aren't always sure what they represent.

Here's a simple breakdown:

Final List-to-Sale Ratio

97.56%

This means the average buyer negotiated approximately 2.4% off the seller's final asking price.

Original List-to-Sale Ratio

93.98%

This number includes every price reduction made before a contract was signed.

Together, these metrics provide a clearer picture of market conditions than home prices alone.

📈 More Homes Are Selling at or Above Asking Price

Although most Austin homes still sell below list price, competition has strengthened for well-priced listings.

June 2026 results:

13.0% sold above asking price
20.6% sold at asking price
66.4% sold below asking price

Compared to June 2025:

Over-list sales increased from 12.1% to 13.0%.

This suggests buyers remain willing to compete for homes that are accurately priced and move-in ready.

🤝 Buyers Still Have Negotiating Opportunities

The Austin market hasn't returned to the bidding wars of 2021.

Buyers still benefit from:

Negotiation opportunities
Healthy inventory
Seller flexibility on many listings
Time to compare multiple homes

However, negotiation strategies should vary based on the property.

Fresh Listings

Well-priced new listings often receive strong interest and may leave little room for negotiation.

Listings with Price Reductions

Homes that have already experienced one or more price reductions frequently present stronger negotiation opportunities.

Understanding the difference is key.

📊 Demand Remains Consistent

Perhaps the most encouraging statistic is transaction volume.

June 2026 recorded:

2,994 home sales

June 2025 recorded:

2,989 home sales

That's essentially unchanged year over year.

At the same time:

Average sold price increased 5.6%
Median sold price increased 2.0%

Steady sales activity combined with improving pricing metrics suggests the Austin market continues to normalize rather than weaken.

📍 Why Hyperlocal Markets Still Matter

While metro-wide statistics are helpful, real estate decisions are made at the neighborhood level.

For example:

A move-in-ready home in Allandale, Clarksville, or Crestview may attract multiple offers, while another property only a few miles away could require several price reductions before finding a buyer.

Factors such as:

ZIP code
School district
Walkability
Property condition
Lot characteristics
Price point

all influence how quickly a home sells and how much negotiating leverage exists.

Austin isn't one market—it's dozens of neighborhood-specific markets.

💡 Advice for Sellers

If you're planning to sell, today's data reinforces one critical strategy:

Price It Right From Day One

Homes entering the market at realistic prices are:

Receiving stronger buyer interest
Selling faster
Requiring fewer price reductions
Preserving more of the seller's equity

Overpricing in hopes of "testing the market" often results in additional time on market and ultimately a lower final sale price.

🏠 Advice for Buyers

Today's buyers should approach each listing differently.

Fresh, competitively priced homes may require stronger offers.

Homes that have been on the market longer—or have already experienced price reductions—may offer opportunities to negotiate on:

Purchase price
Closing costs
Repairs
Interest rate buydowns
Closing timelines

Understanding the history of each listing is just as important as understanding the overall market.

📈 Key Takeaways

Sellers

Price reductions have been cut nearly in half since late 2025.
Accurate pricing is becoming increasingly important.
Well-prepared homes continue to perform well.

Buyers

Negotiation opportunities still exist.
Fresh listings generally offer less flexibility.
Homes with prior price reductions often provide greater leverage.

Market Outlook

Steady sales volume, improving pricing metrics, and fewer seller concessions all point toward a market that is becoming more balanced and predictable.

Final Thoughts

Austin's housing market continues to evolve, and the latest data shows encouraging signs of stability.

While buyers still have opportunities to negotiate, sellers who price their homes correctly are finding success with fewer price reductions than just six months ago.

The lesson is clear: today's market rewards preparation, realistic pricing, and a deep understanding of local market conditions.

Whether you're buying or selling, relying on hyperlocal data—not just national headlines—can help you make smarter real estate decisions.

📞 Thinking About Buying or Selling?

Every neighborhood in Austin tells a different story. If you're curious about what these trends mean for your home or your next purchase, I'd be happy to provide a personalized market analysis based on your neighborhood and goals.

Ryan McLaughlin | REALTOR®
Team Price Real Estate

📞 (p) 512.677.0219

🌐 www.ryanmclaughlinrealtor.com

Sources

Dan Price, "Austin Sellers Are Cutting Prices Half as Much as Six Months Ago: List-to-Sale Gap Narrows to 3.6% as of July 2, 2026." Team Price Real Estate, Published July 2, 2026.
Unlock MLS Housing Statistics.
Austin Board of REALTORS® (ABOR) Housing Market Reports.
Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University.
National Association of REALTORS® Market Statistics and Consumer Resources.

Posted in Market Updates

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Keep Austin Home

Area Real Estate News & Market Trends

Austin Housing Inventory Is Down — But Location Changes Everything

Lakeway Shows Why Falling Inventory Doesn't Automatically Mean a Stronger Seller's Market

Lakeway's Inventory Decline Appears to Be About Sellers Leaving, Not Buyers Rushing In

Cedar Park Is Telling a Very Different Story

Why Is Cedar Park's Housing Market Performing Better?

Greater Austin Buyer Demand Is Also Improving

Austin's Supply and Demand Gap Is Slowly Improving

But Improving Metro Data Doesn't Mean Every Austin Neighborhood Is Improving

Austin Real Estate Has Become Hyper-Local

What Does This Mean If You're Selling a Home in Austin?

What Does This Mean for Austin Home Buyers?

The Austin Housing Market Is Improving—But Unevenly

What's Happening in Your Austin Neighborhood?

New Construction Is Capturing More Than Its Share of Austin Buyers

The Activity Index Shows Just How Large the Gap Has Become

Why Are Austin Buyers Choosing New Construction?

A Lower Mortgage Rate Can Matter More Than a Lower Purchase Price

Builders Have More Tools Available to Close the Deal

Austin Builders Have Also Been Cutting Prices

Austin's Builder Competition Is Especially Important in the Suburbs

The Resale Market Can Look Weaker Than the Headline Austin Numbers Suggest

What Does This Mean for Austin Home Sellers?

Resale Homes Have Advantages Too

Sellers Need to Compete on Value, Not Just Price

What Does This Mean for Austin Home Buyers?

New Construction and Resale Are Operating Like Two Different Austin Housing Markets

Buying or Selling in Austin? Compare the Numbers Before Making a Decision.

Austin Housing Inventory Is Telling Two Different Stories

Austin Sellers Now Represent a Smaller Pool of Available Homes

Months of Inventory Has Also Fallen Sharply in Austin

New Supply Is Also Entering the Broader Market More Slowly

Does Less Competition Mean Austin Home Prices Are Going Up?

Pricing Your Austin Home Correctly Matters More Than Ever

Austin Isn't One Real Estate Market

Should You Sell Your Austin Home in 2026?

Thinking About Selling? Let's Look at Your Competition First.

Austin Home Prices Are Showing Signs of Stabilization

Inventory Is No Longer Rising the Way It Was

But Buyer Demand Hasn't Fully Recovered

More Than Half of Austin-Area Listings Have Reduced Their Price

The Most Important Story: Austin Is a Split Market

Why Median Home Prices Can Be Misleading

The Austin Market Is Extremely Hyperlocal

Well-Priced Homes Can Still Move Quickly

What Does This Mean for Austin Home Sellers?

Price for Today's Market

Presentation Matters

Hyperlocal Data Matters

What Does This Mean for Austin Home Buyers?

A Fresh, Well-Priced Listing

An Older Listing With Price Reductions

What Would Confirm a True Austin Housing Recovery?

So, Has the Austin Housing Market Reached a Turning Point?

Final Thoughts

Thinking About Buying or Selling in Austin?

Sources

What Is the New Listing Absorption Ratio?

Austin Buyer Absorption Fell Sharply in July

4,475 Homes Entered the Market—Only 2,749 Were Absorbed

New Listings Slowed—but Buyer Demand Slowed Faster

Price Reductions Continue to Give Austin Buyers Opportunities

Fewer Austin Listings Are Expiring

Back-on-Market Activity Remains Worth Watching

Austin Closed Sales Slowed in July

What About Mortgage Rates?

Is Austin a Buyer's Market in 2026?

What Austin Buyers Should Do Right Now

What Austin Sellers Should Do Right Now

What Should We Watch Heading Into Fall 2026?

The Bottom Line

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Austin currently a buyer's or seller's market?

What is the New Listing Absorption Ratio?

Why are so many Austin homes reducing their prices?

Are mortgage rates causing Austin's housing slowdown?

What should Austin buyers and sellers watch next?

Want to Know What's Happening in Your Austin Neighborhood?

Ryan McLaughlin | REALTOR®